Israel vs. Iran: To Attack or Not to Attack?

Iran’s attack on Israel was communicated early on to the West. The international response officially condemned the barrage of rockets and drones and, internally, Iran was praised for its coordinated approach. The operation resulted in no casualties. And it came as no surprise to Joe Biden.

Politically, however, the attack was a grave mistake, as it gave Netanyahu and his cabinet a license to kill. Previously, Iran had avoided direct confrontation with Israel, instead using various proxy groups and terrorist organizations.

Why this is important: Israel lacked a formal pretext to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran. Such an action would constitute a war of aggression under U.N. statutes, which Israel (and the U.S.) cannot afford.

That meant: The arsenal door was firmly shut for Netanyahu.

But Iran has now given him reason to open that door.

Bloomberg reports that “Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has changed the rules of engagement.” Netanyahu is already under pressure, particularly because he believes that a response is only justified if it's disproportionate.

Here are three reasons why the Israeli prime minister is gearing up for a significant counterstrike:

1. Destroying Iran's Nuclear Capabilities:

Since 2018, when Donald Trump withdrew from the US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran has been building up its nuclear capabilities.

For more information: Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) committed Iran to American supervision of their nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions.

For Trump that was not enough. That’s why he ended the deal and reinstated the sanctions. He wanted to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran.

But as we now know, that backfired. Bloomberg commented yesterday:

Expert assessment: Iran is already a nuclear power. The evidence comes from the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. They estimate that Iran has enough enriched uranium to produce "seven nuclear weapons in one month, nine in two months, 11 in three months, 12 to 13 in four months, and 13 in five months.”

2. Reviving Netanyahu's Top Dog Image:

Ever since Netanyahu literally slept through the Hamas attack on October 7th, his reputation as a security and military leader has suffered. Since then, critical voices in the USA and Israel have been advising him to fix his image.

Former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Republican John Bolton, publicly urged Netanyahu to seize the opportunity.

In an interview with The Hill, Bolton calls for a "disproportionate response" and the elimination of Iran's nuclear facilities:

Time is of the essence; according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite imagery, Iran is building its new enrichment plant in the mountains of Natanz. There, the facilities will be safe from the Americans' powerful bunker-busting bombs.

3. Enforcing American Solidarity:

Netanyahu can use the Iranian attack to rally U.S. support.

The case is not as clear-cut as it previously seemed, which is why the Israeli government is hesitant to take tough action.

Here are three reasons why Netanyahu should reconsider launching a counterstrike:

1. Fear of further isolation: In the event of a direct attack on Iran’s military plans, retaliation is definite — and Iran will likely go all out. The consequences for Israeli civilians could be severe.

2. Success is uncertain: The chances of destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities have already been assessed once by the former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. The result was not very optimistic: even a frontal attack on the country's nuclear industry would only delay the atom bomb project by two years.

3. How stable is Israel’s friendship with the United States? With the U.S. presidential elections on the horizon, Joe Biden needs to play it safe. The White House sees Iran differently from the government in Jerusalem, as Gideon Rachman accurately describes in the Financial Times:

In conclusion, the deliberations among political and military leaders are unfolding dramatically. We are all witnessing a dynamic that the philosopher Peter Sloterdijk has called "continuation war":

• On today’s Pioneer Podcast, I spoke with the french political scientist Claire Demesmay about right-wing populism in Europe.

• Germany’s Taxpayers' Association has some constructive proposals for how the current coalition can cut costs.

• Happy Birthday! 90 years ago today, the first laundromat opened in Fort Worth, Texas.

Two right-wing populists dominate the European stage: Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen of France's Comités Jeanne. But they don't see eye to eye.

For today's Pioneer Podcast, I spoke with Claire Demesmay. She is a French political scientist who analyzes how the current national right-wing populism could evolve into a European right-wing populism.

Demesmay is not surprised that Le Pen and Weidel have more differences than similarities:

But who is Le Pen politically "friends" with, if not Ms. Weidel or the French right-wing outlier Éric Zemmour?

To delve deeper into the discussion of cooperation between nationalist parties and the right-wing populist movement in France and Europe, listen to our latest episode of the Pioneer Podcast.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has called for "maximum restraint" during her visit to Israel following Iran's attack:

We must prevent "the highly dangerous situation in the Middle East from turning into an even larger regional conflict."

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unimpressed by Baerbock's words. He thanked the "friends for their support in defending Israel, in words and in deeds," saying they also had "all kinds of suggestions and advice." And yet he added:

On track: Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall, bringing European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's two percent target within reach.

According to the latest data from Luxembourg, inflation was 2.4 percent in March, down 0.2 percentage points from February.

When will the rate cuts come? That's the pressing question, and the ECB president is suggesting that it might happen soon. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, she said:

The situation in the U.S. is very different: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it will likely take "longer than expected" for inflation to return to the two percent target. This is a prerequisite for triggering interest rate cuts. Powell said:

There is considerable uncertainty: The latest inflation data - 3.5 percent in March - has "clearly not provided greater confidence" that price developments have been controlled. On the contrary, Powell believes that "it will likely take longer than expected to achieve that confidence."

Rate cuts are uncertain. Previously, the Fed had indicated that it would move away from 23-year highs of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent this year. Markets had recently been expecting this to happen as early as June, but analysts now expect it to happen in September.

"Saving, saving, saving" is the motto of the government since the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court, which prohibited the reallocation of government loans.

Constructive suggestions, however, aren’t coming from the Chancellor's Office or the ministries themselves but from the Taxpayers' Association. In this year's "savings book," which is being presented today, association president Reiner Holznagel writes:

The Taxpayers Association proposes:

"Not renaming": As part of the new basic child protection scheme, the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs wants to rename the "Familienkasse" to "Familienservice." This would cost €750,000. Savings potential!

"Modernizing the ministerial allowance": The Taxpayers Association advocates for abolishing outdated position allowances outlined in the Federal Salary Act. Currently, ministry employees receive a ministerial allowance without additional performance requirements, costing taxpayers approximately €90 million annually. The Taxpayers' Association writes:

“Fairp(l)ay”: The police also secure major commercial events like Bundesliga soccer matches. Thousands of police officers are often deployed at high-risk games. The taxpayer foots the bill. This is not the case in Bremen, where the additional police effort is billed to the Bundesliga. This model should be implemented nationwide, the Taxpayers' Association recommends:

Conclusion: The Taxpayers' Association's proposals are not left-wing or right-wing, but just sensible.

Drumroll, please: Today, 90 years ago, on April 18th, 1934, the first laundromat called "Washateria" opened its doors in Fort Worth, Texas, marking the beginning of a success story.

The concept: American businessman J.F. Cantrell had a brilliant business idea in the early 1930s. He bought four washing machines, set them up in a room and rented them out by the hour. The first electric washing machine had been introduced only 30 years earlier and was not yet a household staple.

The laundromat has achieved cult status - it is socially acceptable, whether as a backdrop for advertising purposes or as the inspiration for films and series such as "My Beautiful Laundrette" or "NightWash." Dirty laundry and casual gossip can still be done in public, thanks to the laundromat.

On the other side of the Atlantic: Germany followed the American trend some 15 years later. The first laundromat opened its doors in Munich's Leopoldstrasse in 1950.

Wishing you a wonderful start to your day. Stay informed. Stay with me.

Best wishes,